We had quite the run of months finishing with above-average temperatures. Even with the damp and chilly weather to end the month of October, we will still end with near to above-average temperatures for the month.
We are also in the middle of an impressive streak of cold, and at times, snowy Novembers. Last November, our monthly temperature finished 4.9 degrees below the average. We also picked up 12.6 inches of snow.
It certainly wasn’t a sign for the winter as most of the last winter was mild and finished well-below our seasonal snow average. Two Novembers ago, we finished 5.2 degrees below the average and picked up 13.4 inches of snow.
The last mild November was 2016, where temperatures finished 4.4 degrees above the average.
Now, the question is what streak comes to an end first, the streak of consecutive months with above-average temperatures or our cold Novembers.
While we do expect an unseasonably cold start to the month and possibly Buffalo’s first snowfall of the season Sunday night into Monday, it does look short-lived.
Even by the middle of next week, we could have temperatures back up to around 60, which is quite a bit above average for early November.
In the image below, which is the EURO model for weekly anomalous temperatures for the second week of November, almost all the anomalous cold air has exited the lower 48 by the end of the first week.
Models are in good agreement that once milder weather returns, we are looking at most days running above average through about mid-month before our next push of cooler weather.
However, by then the average high on the 15th of November is only 48 degrees for Buffalo. These are not true forecast numbers but the GFS model temperature trend and most days on this are above average.
Some of our weekly data keep us above average through the end of the month.
These are our weekly averages. While we expect most days to be above average, we will still see some brief shots of cold, and when we do, there will be chances for snow.
It sure looks like our streak of above-average temperature months is going to continue. The last month that finished below average was May. The month finished 0.9 degrees below the average.
The next question is, will this be a sign for the upcoming winter?
We nailed last year’s prediction and were one of the few outlets that predicted a mild and below-average snowfall winter.
I’m still in the middle of research, but my initial thoughts are for a relatively easy winter. Of course, as I dig deeper into my research, that may change. Find out later in November as our Annual Winter Forecast Special usually premieres on Thanksgiving.