2021 Kentucky Derby weather outlook

The Kentucky Derby has seen some wild weather in the past, but this year it looks pleasant and quiet.

What You Need To Know

  • High temperatures will be in the 60s
  • Expect plentiful sunshine
  • No rain is expected this year

Living in Kentucky in the spring, you know we can see all types of weather. From snow to thunderstorms, all is on the table this time of year. The 147th Kentucky Derby will fall on a tranquil day with temperatures slightly below average.

Leading up to the Derby, showers and thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday and Thursday night. With a dry Friday and Saturday, track conditions look dry and fast for Derby day.

Here’s a break down of track conditions and what that actually mean.


The dirt on the track is packed tight which is good for horse racing. This condition is when records are typically ripe for being broken. This track condition has occurred the majority of the times during the Kentucky Derby.


The dirt is beginning to dry out which slows down the horses.


The surface of the track is very wet and water beins to pool in spots. This happens right after a bout of heavy rain or an all day rainfall.


Heavy mud is present, leading to the slowest possible racing conditions with slower times.


The track is slow and saturated with a lot of mud on the track.


These conditions are somewhere between sloppy and heavy. The track is slowly drying out, but race times are still slow.


This condition is rare and has only happened three times in history, but the track is very dry sending dust in the air behind the horses.

This year looks to be a good one with highs a little bit below average in the 60s with a mostly sunny sky.